By Michael Gryboski, The Christian Post.
Presbyterian Church (USA) is expecting to see a loss of over 400,000 members between 2015 and 2020, according to a reported internal document.
“The slide [from the meeting] also showed that COGA is predicting membership losses of 100,000 for both 2015 and 2016,” reported The Layman.
PCUSA’s Office of the General Assembly and Presbyterian Mission Agency Board Executive Committee held a meeting last Wednesday when projected losses were discussed, according to a recent account by the conservative Presbyterian publication The Layman.
“Membership losses for 2017-2020 are projected to be 75,000 each year. That is more than the membership losses in both 2014 (-92,433) and 2013 (-89,296).”
The Layman is the publication for the Presbyterian Lay Committee, a group of theologically conservative Presbyterians whose founding predate the formation of PCUSA.
Presbyterian Lay Committee President Carmen Fowler LaBerge told The Christian Post that she believes the estimated losses for 2015 were “based on preliminary reporting by presbyteries to the Office of the General Assembly.”
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The employment or use of metrics or data points to predict the demise or collapse of the PCUSA is now sort of a parlor game for many. I have held for sometime the PCUSA will not so much go away or collapse but like water, find its lowest level of gravity. I think that number settles down around where the Quakers or Unitarians are now, about 300-700K nationally. That is both the ceiling and floor for a post-christian, liberal former denominational groups.
Though I think that prevailing economics and economic stress will cause the PCUSA corporation to seek merger/unions with other like minded groups far before it gets to that point. I once thought the UCC was the natural fit, but they would never abide by the Episcopal understanding the entity has about church property and finance. CC(DC),RCA? That’s their problem to address.
In economics though you have what is called “Black Swan” type events, like the collapse of Lehman in 2008. Totally unexpected and totally takes all by surprise that collapses the entire system. And as applies to the PCUSA, there are many potential “Black Swans” that could implode the system overnight. 1. Some further financial scandal in the PMA, or with the Foundation money. 2. A run on the Pension Plan, 8 billion may sound rich, but seeking a 7% return in a 1 or 2% world leads to risks. Hedge Funds, dark pools with high cost features. 3. Some other outrage, a future Stated Clerk or Moderator denies Christ or gets caught in some irregularities personally or with money. Or another off the wall, chaotic the Wall GA.
By any measure the current PCUSA is fragile, weak, trust deprived, driven by partisanship, ideological crusades, and tribal theologies. Does not really take all that strong of a push one way or the other.
A really interesting thing to look at on the linked document is the Year End Net Unrestricted Assets. It’s projected to jump and then start falling. If you follow the trend and project what will happen in 2021 it is not a pretty picture.
Not only is the denomination in a fragile position many, if not most, congregations are teetering. Assuming reported membership numbers are correct the mean PCUSA congregation has about 85 members. Half of those are elderly. I suspect we will start to see increasing numbers of older smaller congregations disbanding or forced into mergers because they lack the resources to maintain the property and continue in ministry.
Will the financial stresses of 2021 be what pushes the call for some type of Union Merger. Who knows? Like you I’m not sure exactly who with.
And of course Peter Gregory and the Lay Committee rejoice in this and have aided and abetted this. Look at the reporting and the promoting. Sad.
James, you nailed it. The not-so-secret agenda of the PLC and others is the utter destruction of the PCUSA. If it weren’t for these nefarious types, the PCUSA would be humming along, adding new disciples and transforming communities above and beyond what any other denomination is doing.
To blame Peter Gregory and the the Lay Committee for the state of the pcusa is a classic definition Delusional!
LOL
The Layman shines a ‘light’ on a thirsty, dark and deceived world.
It’s time for Louisville people to realize that a merger with the UCC/Liberal Methodists/ELCA/Disciples/ABC-CBF is needed NOW! It’s stupid to continue to burn resources with no solutions in sight.
Jackie, have you ever wondered why there are so many really small congregations in almost every presbytery, even though for many of them there are other Presbyterian congregations within easy driving distance with which they could easily merge if they wished to do so? Have you ever wondered why there are so few church mergers in this kind of situation?
The reason is not hard to grasp. Each congregation has its own identity, its own history, its own sacred spaces, its own way of doing things, its own movers and shakers, its own decision making dynamic, etc. To merge with another congregation is to risk losing all of that, and most small congregations simply cannot bear the thought, no matter how untenable their long-term prospects may be.
The same is true of denominations, especially denominations that come out of very distinct and different traditions, like the ones you mention in your post. The merger of the two Presbyterian denominations that was consummated in 1983 was a long and difficult process, and we are talking about two distinctly Presbyterian denominations that shared a common history prior to the Civil War. How much more difficult would it be for the PCUSA to seek a merger with Methodists or Lutherans or Baptists?
The long and short of it is that while a denominational merger could happen at some point in the future, anything is possible, I think that it is very unlikely. I am convinced that the PCUSA will continue on its present downward path until it reaches what Peter Gregory might call the Unitarian or Quaker level (500,000 plus or minus) and then stabilize at that point.
By that time, almost all actual Christians (biblical, orthodox believers) will have died off or departed the PCUSA for other denominations, so that the PCUSA will be able, without any further ado, to settle down into its new identity as a small, American, post-Christian, boutique religion within the constellation of other small, American, post-Christian, boutique religions.
Is that an exciting future or what?
Confession time, Yes James did bust me. I have Jedi mind tricks were I turn PCUSA administrators into blithering idiots, and I really have made 2 million PCUSA folks disappear the last 25 years by secret incantations.
Global warming, Israel-Palestine, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, the Bush and Obama presidency, again, all on me.
Funny thing about the PCUSA, read their literature leading up to the next GA, the web sites, the denominational aligned and allied web sites/blogs. The great membership loss and its associated financial implications, are non-events. As if they do not exist or some one is just making up numbers. Christians are being slaughtered in ISIS territory, 3 million Syrians on the move, what leads in “Outlook”. The manifold sins of Israel and their continued lack of compassion to terrorist organizations bent on their destruction. OK. Again, that’s my fault as well.
Not that math is my strong suit, but isn’t the loss from 2015-2020 projected to be 500,000?
I am convinced that nothing can ever separate us from God’s love.
Don Robert has totally changed my opinion on the trajectory of the PCUSA. I had assumed they would find some other liberal like minded group to merge or affiliate by 2025. But he is correct. Much like the 18th/19th century Quakers, the 21st century Neo-Quakers (PCUSA) are too iconoclastic, too insular, too flinty, too querky, too queer, to really find a potential partner to union or merge. Just plain odd in how they do their business. In the greater American religious landscape they are simply morphing into a boutique or corporate vanity project.
The organization suffers from what I call ‘institutional derangement syndrome”. In their policy statements, papers, blogs and web sites the biggest issues facing the PCUSA, according to them, are 1. Israel-Palestine. 2. Supposed Institutional racism and some form of apology and guilt tour 3. Carbon issues and climate change. Again as if the great depopulation and corporate death spiral is a myth developed by the vast right-wing conspiracy factory.
This much is true, the PCUSA corporate matrix Presbytery level-OGA are still structured, staffed and resourced for a 4.2 million denomination. What the local church has been doing and adjusting too for close to 40 years has yet to happen in the 177 Presbytery-15 Synod-Louisville-11 theological seminary structure. And its that complex that will collapse, and it will be messy and painful for those invested in the older orders.
Once the dust settled from that process, then the “boutiqueness” of the entity will become more clear.
The question comes to mind: will the next GA provide a change of direction
for this denomination? Will those assessing the survey and summarizing the identity of the PCUSA get it right in order to stop this down ward spiral? Do they care? Will the leadership and commissioners ignore these signs and make their agenda THE agenda …..all about politics? Will there be a call for large tolls for the dissenters without hearing the voice of those leaving?
What kind of “gate keeping” will give us a new Stated Clerk as vision maker? What will that vision be?
This projection leaves us with a lot of pressing questions!
God help us!
Thanks for the chuckle Peter! I’m always amused when pastors are accused of “brainwashing” entire congregations into such crazy, unforeseen actions like trying to protect their own assets. These people have clearly never met the fiercely intelligent and independent thinking church members that we pastors have to deal with every day!
What a miserly denomination! They don’t give even the tithe, 10% of their membership, per year!
In the UK the Presbyterian Church of England and the Congregational Church of England merged in 1972 to form the United Reformed Church. It has been down hill ever since. They have closed and merged churches, and “harmonized doctrines” all to no avail. It is another leftist church sliding into extinction. Today the remnant of those two once great churches has less than 60,000 members. Any merger of the PCUSA with other leftist churches will meet the same fate.